Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 245.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.4K
-$101.8
30.3¢ → 35¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 35%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 61¢ | $613.87 | $836.82 | +$222.95 | 51% 2128-2072 (4200) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Overavg 27.5¢ | $551.77 | $330.83 | -$220.93 | 54% 1122-947 (2069) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $49.3 | $70.98 | +$21.67 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $66 | -$134 | 52% 411-380 (791) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $35.7 | $45.48 | +$9.77 | 42% 331-451 (782) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $43.35 | $42.08 | -$1.27 | 56% 4632-3618 (8250) |
Invested
$613.87
Value
$836.82
PnL
+$222.95
Record
51%
2128-2072 (4200)
Invested
$551.77
Value
$330.83
PnL
-$220.93
Record
54%
1122-947 (2069)
Invested
$49.3
Value
$70.98
PnL
+$21.67
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$200
Value
$66
PnL
-$134
Record
52%
411-380 (791)
Invested
$35.7
Value
$45.48
PnL
+$9.77
Record
42%
331-451 (782)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$43.35
Value
$42.08
PnL
-$1.27
Record
56%
4632-3618 (8250)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.