Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (67%) · Pistons at 53¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons53¢Wizards47¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 67%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$45.41

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

8 of 12 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons53%

Wizards48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,907

Combined PnL+$95.64

Wizards4 traders

Total Value$794.17

Total Shares1,647

Combined PnL-$50.23

Pistons — 67%Wizards — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 45.4¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$128.85	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 45.4¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$395.18
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 52.6¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$266.33
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$203.69	49% 303-310 (613)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.8¢	$802.7	$905.1	+$102.4
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 36¢	$406.93	$508.22	+$101.29
65 6512395314597884	Pistonsavg 50.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$73.36	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 47.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$20.18	54% 1122-947 (2069)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 47.8¢	$694.23	$654.05	-$40.18
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 53¢	$530	$550	+$20
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Wizardsavg 42.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	+$85.9	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.1¢	$422.18	$570.4	+$148.22
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 42.3¢	$540.72	$447.8	-$62.33
BI biying88888CTR	Wizardsavg 52¢	$706.26	$645.14	-$61.12	42% 169-232 (401)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Pistonsavg 52¢	$477.45	$477.45	+$0	42% 16-22 (38)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51¢	$411.84	$418.86	+$7.02	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$227.99	$214.72	-$13.27
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 46.8¢	$183.84	$204.14	+$20.29
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Pistonsavg 56.2¢	$256.59	$253.74	-$2.85	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 56.2¢	$158.52	$155.19	-$3.33
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 44.8¢	$98.07	$98.55	+$0.48
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 39.6¢	$544.71	$214.7	+$53.44	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 39.6¢	$132.53	$117.2	+$7.46
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 47.9¢	$71.9	$97.5	+$45.98
SU suitcase6628	Pistonsavg 51¢	$122.4	$123.6	+$1.2	63% 392-229 (621)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Wizardsavg 54¢	$99.39	$112.23	+$12.84	48% 367-391 (758)
PA Pan9X	Pistonsavg 48¢	$211.24	$84.39	+$20.8	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$53.44	$53.98	+$0.55	52% 411-380 (791)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 37¢	$37	$35	-$2	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
SU suntori<$100	Pistonsavg 65¢	$14.28	$13.62	-$0.66	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Pistonsavg 61¢	$12.95	$13.36	+$0.41	47% 564-628 (1192)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Pistonsavg 49¢	$11.02	$11	-$0.02	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.8	+$0.05	42% 662-917 (1579)

RN1ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$3,304.22

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$128.85

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

Wizards$2,012.2745.4¢-$395.18

Pistons$1,291.9552.6¢+$266.33

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,209.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$203.69

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Both legs:

Pistons$802.748.8¢+$102.4

Wizards$406.9336¢+$101.29

6512395314597884

Pistons

Invested

$1,327.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$73.36

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,224.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$20.18

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Both legs:

Wizards$694.2347.8¢-$40.18

Pistons$53053¢+$20

FlaznorpARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,073.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$85.9

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Pistons$422.1848.1¢+$148.22

Wizards$540.7242.3¢-$62.33

biying88888CTR

Wizards

Invested

$706.26

Value

$645.14

PnL

-$61.12

Record

42%

169-232 (401)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Pistons

Invested

$477.45

Value

$477.45

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

16-22 (38)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$411.84

Value

$418.86

PnL

+$7.02

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

Both legs:

Wizards$227.9951¢-$13.27

Pistons$183.8446.8¢+$20.29

takeormakeARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$256.59

Value

$253.74

PnL

-$2.85

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

Both legs:

Pistons$158.5256.2¢-$3.33

Wizards$98.0744.8¢+$0.48

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$544.71

Value

$214.7

PnL

+$53.44

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Wizards$132.5339.6¢+$7.46

Pistons$71.947.9¢+$45.98

suitcase6628

Pistons

Invested

$122.4

Value

$123.6

PnL

+$1.2

Record

63%

392-229 (621)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Wizards

Invested

$99.39

Value

$112.23

PnL

+$12.84

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

Pan9X

Pistons

Invested

$211.24

Value

$84.39

PnL

+$20.8

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Pistons

Invested

$53.44

Value

$53.98

PnL

+$0.55

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$37

Value

$35

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

suntori<$100

Pistons

Invested

$14.28

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$0.66

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

SnakeBall<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12.95

Value

$13.36

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

ferdinand2<$100

Pistons

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

sentrioCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

8 of 12 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.