Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Timberwolves48¢Mavericks52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

-$74.29

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves48%

Mavericks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,633

Combined PnL+$21.4

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,216

Combined PnL-$95.69

Mavericks — 50%Timberwolves — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Mavericksavg 52¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$22.33	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
nehcnehcCTR	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$98.57	30% 34-78 (112)
VE VenusianCTR	Timberwolvesavg 46¢	$104.88	$107.16	+$2.28	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$56.4	$57	+$0.6	70% 1697-734 (2431)
SU suntori<$100	Mavericksavg 52.8¢	$42.84	$42.39	-$0.45	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 54¢	$13.5	$13.06	-$0.44	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$5.02	$5.02	+$0	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Mavericksavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.61	-$0.04	57% 3457-2627 (6084)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Mavericks

Invested

$4,951.56

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$22.33

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

nehcnehcCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,731.35

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$98.57

Record

30%

34-78 (112)

VenusianCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$104.88

Value

$107.16

PnL

+$2.28

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.4

Value

$57

PnL

+$0.6

Record

70%

1697-734 (2431)

suntori<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$42.84

Value

$42.39

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.06

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.