Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (77%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 24¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 13

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$41.67

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 23.5¢

-56% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares10,948

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares10,353

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47.1¢	$3.9K	$6.1K	+$2.2K	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 52.9¢	$5.3K	$2.4K	$-3.0K	22% 31-107 (138)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 49.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$573.72	54% 1122-947 (2069)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53.3¢	$369.81	$531.24	+$161.44	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 68.6¢	$437.75	$310.69	-$36.68	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.6¢	$191.61	$213.56	+$24.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.2¢	$157.84	$97.13	-$60.71
RN1	Overavg 47¢	$120.32	$192	+$71.68	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 50¢	$124.8	$58.66	-$66.14	42% 172-235 (407)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Overavg 62.2¢	$34.03	$34.75	+$0.72	52% 411-380 (791)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$22.62	$10.22	-$12.4	39% 112-173 (285)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$14.15	$0.96	-$1.62	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,863.87

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$5,320.38

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

22%

31-107 (138)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,187.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$573.72

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$369.81

Value

$531.24

PnL

+$161.44

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$437.75

Value

$310.69

PnL

-$36.68

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Over$191.6168.6¢+$24.03

Under$157.8438.2¢-$60.71

RN1

Over

Invested

$120.32

Value

$192

PnL

+$71.68

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$124.8

Value

$58.66

PnL

-$66.14

Record

42%

172-235 (407)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Over

Invested

$34.03

Value

$34.75

PnL

+$0.72

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.62

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$12.4

Record

39%

112-173 (285)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.15

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$1.62

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.