Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 215.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 75%
$1.5K
-$11.63
47.2¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $475.65 | $475.65 | +$0 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $276.79 | $282.81 | +$6.02 | 48% 116-124 (240) |
SU suntoriCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $243.8 | $233.85 | -$9.95 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $226.07 | $226.07 | +$0 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 53¢ | $206.15 | $198.37 | -$7.78 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $46.15 | $46.63 | +$0.48 | 44% 165-210 (375) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $10.2 | -$0.4 | 54% 281-239 (520) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $9.4 | +$0 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
Invested
$475.65
Value
$475.65
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
Invested
$276.79
Value
$282.81
PnL
+$6.02
Record
48%
116-124 (240)
Invested
$243.8
Value
$233.85
PnL
-$9.95
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$226.07
Value
$226.07
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$206.15
Value
$198.37
PnL
-$7.78
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$46.15
Value
$46.63
PnL
+$0.48
Record
44%
165-210 (375)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
281-239 (520)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.