Blues vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 38%
$1.4K
$20.94
56¢ → 57.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-27 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 56¢ | $996.2 | $1.0K | +$9.66 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $460.92 | $116.47 | +$13.37 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 43.8¢ | $109.5 | $106.25 | -$3.25 | 54% 274-237 (511) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $94.62 | $95.45 | +$0.83 | 52% 352-328 (680) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $11.87 | $12.01 | +$0.14 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 43.6¢ | $10.9 | $10.88 | -$0.02 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $6.24 | $6.72 | +$0.48 | 27% 52-141 (193) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.3¢ | $6.65 | $6.38 | -$0.28 | 38% 487-808 (1295) |
Invested
$996.2
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.66
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
Invested
$460.92
Value
$116.47
PnL
+$13.37
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$109.5
Value
$106.25
PnL
-$3.25
Record
54%
274-237 (511)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$94.62
Value
$95.45
PnL
+$0.83
Record
52%
352-328 (680)
Invested
$11.87
Value
$12.01
PnL
+$0.14
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.72
PnL
+$0.48
Record
27%
52-141 (193)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$6.38
PnL
-$0.28
Record
38%
487-808 (1295)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.