Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (42%) · 76ers at 77¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors24¢76ers76¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$95.7

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 76.5¢

+46% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors24%

76ers77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,131

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares7,077

Combined PnL-$959.7

76ers — 42%Raptors — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	76ersavg 49.5¢	$2.7K	$3.7K	+$1.1K	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51.5¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$257.58	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 54.6¢	$888.57	$1.2K	+$275.21
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.5¢	$1.2K	$658.98	-$532.79
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Raptorsavg 48¢	$2.3K	$1.4K	-$823.29	52% 411-380 (791)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 67¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$119.72	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 67¢	$745.19	$773.18	+$27.99
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49¢	$390.76	$243.05	-$147.71
AN Anon455ARB<$100	76ersavg 80.9¢	$1.1K	$879.86	-$237.01	49% 303-310 (613)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 80.9¢	$616.86	$384.86	-$232.01
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 62.9¢	$722.65	$741.16	+$18.51	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SU suntori	76ersavg 48¢	$502.85	$492.37	-$10.48	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 66¢	$445.64	$305.38	-$36.61	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Raptorsavg 52¢	$490.75	$268.97	-$221.78	51% 3788-3581 (7369)
nigiri99CTR	Raptorsavg 18.9¢	$152.31	$245.22	+$92.91	52% 388-362 (750)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51¢	$318.07	$215.91	-$102.16	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51¢	$255.29	$152.67	-$102.62
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 69¢	$62.78	$63.23	+$0.45
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 59.5¢	$81.46	$89.04	+$7.57	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 50¢	$75	$74.25	-$0.75	48% 367-391 (758)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 17¢	$72.76	$68.48	-$4.28	35% 657-1232 (1889)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 30.3¢	$45.72	$13.6	-$2.63	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 51¢	$12.24	$12.36	+$0.12	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

76ers

Invested

$2,669.56

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2,080.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$257.58

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

76ers$888.5754.6¢+$275.21

Raptors$1,191.7751.5¢-$532.79

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Raptors

Invested

$2,256.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$823.29

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,135.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$119.72

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

76ers$745.1967¢+$27.99

Raptors$390.7649¢-$147.71

Anon455ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,116.86

Value

$879.86

PnL

-$237.01

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Both legs:

Raptors$50050¢-$5

76ers$616.8680.9¢-$232.01

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$722.65

Value

$741.16

PnL

+$18.51

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

suntori

76ers

Invested

$502.85

Value

$492.37

PnL

-$10.48

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$445.64

Value

$305.38

PnL

-$36.61

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Raptors

Invested

$490.75

Value

$268.97

PnL

-$221.78

Record

51%

3788-3581 (7369)

nigiri99CTR

Raptors

Invested

$152.31

Value

$245.22

PnL

+$92.91

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$318.07

Value

$215.91

PnL

-$102.16

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Raptors$255.2951¢-$102.62

76ers$62.7869¢+$0.45

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$81.46

Value

$89.04

PnL

+$7.57

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$75

Value

$74.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$72.76

Value

$68.48

PnL

-$4.28

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$45.72

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$2.63

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$12.24

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 12 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.