Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (59%) · Senators at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Avalanche8¢Senators92¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Senators

Consensus Traders

Senators 59%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$29.15

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 92.5¢

+15% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche8%

Senators93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Senators10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,569

Combined PnL+$47.39

Avalanche7 traders

Total Value$351.4

Total Shares1,382

Combined PnL-$18.24

Senators — 59%Avalanche — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Senatorsavg 86¢	$455	$489.39	+$34.39	23% 58-198 (256)
nigiri99CTR	Avalancheavg 30¢	$276.6	$258.16	-$18.44	52% 388-362 (750)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Senatorsavg 70¢	$167.28	$170.87	+$3.58	48% 581-618 (1199)
38 38791873984189	Senatorsavg 71¢	$146.04	$144.05	-$1.98	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Senatorsavg 70.5¢	$139.58	$141.57	+$1.99	43% 119-161 (280)
PA Pan9X	Senatorsavg 89.3¢	$162.29	$131.85	+$0.43	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Senatorsavg 91¢	$61.26	$62.27	+$1.01	36% 559-993 (1552)
poshposh<$100	Senatorsavg 90¢	$53.54	$55.03	+$1.49	48% 652-699 (1351)
MA manoamano<$100	Senatorsavg 85.8¢	$49.8	$53.7	+$3.9	46% 13-15 (28)
LR lryyy<$100	Senatorsavg 89¢	$50.48	$52.47	+$1.99	45% 465-578 (1043)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 30¢	$40.54	$37.84	-$2.7	28% 58-150 (208)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 14¢	$25.06	$27.74	+$2.68	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
GA Gaditima<$100	Senatorsavg 89¢	$15.15	$15.75	+$0.6	46% 172-204 (376)
RN1CTR<$100	Avalancheavg 29¢	$11.48	$10.69	-$0.79	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 14¢	$7.42	$8.22	+$0.79	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 15¢	$7.5	$7.75	+$0.25	54% 529-444 (973)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 29¢	$1.04	$1	-$0.04	46% 1757-2031 (3788)

NordhavenCap

Senators

Invested

$455

Value

$489.39

PnL

+$34.39

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

nigiri99CTR

Avalanche

Invested

$276.6

Value

$258.16

PnL

-$18.44

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

Multicoloured-Serf

Senators

Invested

$167.28

Value

$170.87

PnL

+$3.58

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

38791873984189

Senators

Invested

$146.04

Value

$144.05

PnL

-$1.98

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Senators

Invested

$139.58

Value

$141.57

PnL

+$1.99

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Pan9X

Senators

Invested

$162.29

Value

$131.85

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

topdogbigboi<$100

Senators

Invested

$61.26

Value

$62.27

PnL

+$1.01

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

poshposh<$100

Senators

Invested

$53.54

Value

$55.03

PnL

+$1.49

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

manoamano<$100

Senators

Invested

$49.8

Value

$53.7

PnL

+$3.9

Record

46%

13-15 (28)

lryyy<$100

Senators

Invested

$50.48

Value

$52.47

PnL

+$1.99

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

OddstormCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$40.54

Value

$37.84

PnL

-$2.7

Record

28%

58-150 (208)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$25.06

Value

$27.74

PnL

+$2.68

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

Gaditima<$100

Senators

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.6

Record

46%

172-204 (376)

RN1CTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$11.48

Value

$10.69

PnL

-$0.79

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$7.42

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0.79

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

suntoriCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$1.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

Research grade

NeutralSenators at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Senators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.