Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$37.11

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 53¢

-9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,435

Combined PnL+$46.42

Under12 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares4,515

Combined PnL-$83.53

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$552.95	$570.32	+$17.36	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
AN Anon455	Underavg 52.9¢	$587.16	$532.62	-$54.54	50% 306-311 (617)
RN1	Underavg 68.3¢	$537.47	$510.38	-$27.1	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$439.88	$502.07	+$62.19	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$298.52	$271.06	-$27.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 32.4¢	$141.36	$231.01	+$89.65
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 57¢	$407.7	$462.83	+$55.13	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$462.91	$460.76	-$2.15	52% 411-380 (791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 55¢	$521.62	$354.06	-$9.42	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SE seeeeeeb	Underavg 49¢	$196	$208	+$12	48% 391-432 (823)
PA pauleta23	Underavg 49.7¢	$196	$204.87	+$8.87	36% 320-570 (890)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$144.56	$175.77	+$31.21	42% 331-451 (782)
SU suntori	Underavg 77.6¢	$215.22	$141.44	-$73.78	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 53.3¢	$175.53	$86.24	+$42.72	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 64¢	$70.3	$44.25	+$0.54	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 76¢	$58.52	$39.27	-$19.25	59% 3041-2129 (5170)
dips.<$100	Underavg 76¢	$58.52	$39.27	-$19.25	46% 622-743 (1365)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 52¢	$3.12	$3.66	+$0.54	51% 2128-2072 (4200)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$552.95

Value

$570.32

PnL

+$17.36

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$587.16

Value

$532.62

PnL

-$54.54

Record

50%

306-311 (617)

RN1

Under

Invested

$537.47

Value

$510.38

PnL

-$27.1

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$439.88

Value

$502.07

PnL

+$62.19

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Under$298.5251.8¢-$27.46

Over$141.3632.4¢+$89.65

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$407.7

Value

$462.83

PnL

+$55.13

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$462.91

Value

$460.76

PnL

-$2.15

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$521.62

Value

$354.06

PnL

-$9.42

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

seeeeeeb

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$208

PnL

+$12

Record

48%

391-432 (823)

pauleta23

Under

Invested

$196

Value

$204.87

PnL

+$8.87

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$144.56

Value

$175.77

PnL

+$31.21

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

suntori

Under

Invested

$215.22

Value

$141.44

PnL

-$73.78

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$175.53

Value

$86.24

PnL

+$42.72

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$70.3

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$0.54

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$58.52

Value

$39.27

PnL

-$19.25

Record

59%

3041-2129 (5170)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$58.52

Value

$39.27

PnL

-$19.25

Record

46%

622-743 (1365)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.