Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$2.0K
$418.65
54¢ → 46¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 54¢ | $574.5 | $818.46 | +$243.95 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 54¢ | $541.23 | $805.63 | +$264.4 | 54% 1122-947 (2069) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 53¢ | $170.28 | $173.49 | +$3.21 | 51% 2128-2072 (4200) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 32.9¢ | $44.46 | $74.18 | +$29.71 | 56% 4632-3618 (8250) |
JU justaluckydude | Overavg 50¢ | $177 | $69.03 | -$107.97 | 42% 331-451 (782) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $66.67 | $52 | -$14.67 | 52% 411-380 (791) |
Invested
$574.5
Value
$818.46
PnL
+$243.95
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$541.23
Value
$805.63
PnL
+$264.4
Record
54%
1122-947 (2069)
Invested
$170.28
Value
$173.49
PnL
+$3.21
Record
51%
2128-2072 (4200)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.46
Value
$74.18
PnL
+$29.71
Record
56%
4632-3618 (8250)
Invested
$177
Value
$69.03
PnL
-$107.97
Record
42%
331-451 (782)
Invested
$66.67
Value
$52
PnL
-$14.67
Record
52%
411-380 (791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.