Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 51¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$35.24

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$660.91

Total Shares1,361

Combined PnL-$23.14

Over7 traders

Total Value$730.02

Total Shares1,433

Combined PnL-$12.1

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$492.27	$455.86	-$36.41	48% 581-618 (1199)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 47¢	$245	$260.64	+$15.64	23% 58-198 (256)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 57.9¢	$236.68	$204.3	-$32.39	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 58¢	$110.2	$111.15	+$0.95	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
BA banepirCTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$85.54	$97.65	+$12.11	60% 12-8 (20)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$60.85	$60.19	-$0.66	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 47¢	$55.46	$54.87	-$0.59	43% 119-161 (280)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 50¢	$32.67	$34.3	+$1.63	36% 559-993 (1552)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 47¢	$32.36	$32.7	+$0.34	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$29.76	$32.06	+$2.31	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$27.03	$28.36	+$1.32	52% 388-362 (750)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$7.42	$5.85	+$0.28	56% 312-248 (560)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$5.4	$5.56	+$0.16	53% 1117-973 (2090)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.83	$4.78	-$0.05	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.68	+$0.13	38% 509-821 (1330)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$492.27

Value

$455.86

PnL

-$36.41

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$245

Value

$260.64

PnL

+$15.64

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$236.68

Value

$204.3

PnL

-$32.39

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$110.2

Value

$111.15

PnL

+$0.95

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

banepirCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.54

Value

$97.65

PnL

+$12.11

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.85

Value

$60.19

PnL

-$0.66

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$55.46

Value

$54.87

PnL

-$0.59

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$32.67

Value

$34.3

PnL

+$1.63

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$32.36

Value

$32.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$29.76

Value

$32.06

PnL

+$2.31

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.03

Value

$28.36

PnL

+$1.32

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.42

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.28

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.