Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Senators, while the market favors Avalanche (96%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Senators (-2.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Senators (38%) · Senators at 4.5¢ · $440 held · ended Nov 13

Senators5¢Avalanche95¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Senators

Consensus Traders

Senators 38%

Total Value

$440.23

Combined PnL

$11.02

Smart Money Entry

31.5¢ → 4.5¢

-86% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSenators at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Senators5%

Avalanche96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Senators3 traders

Total Value$292.96

Total Shares928

Combined PnL+$0.77

Avalanche5 traders

Total Value$147.27

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$10.24

Senators — 38%Avalanche — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Senatorsavg 24.4¢	$154.69	$149.26	-$5.42	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Senatorsavg 47.4¢	$135.9	$140.43	+$4.53	48% 581-620 (1201)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Avalancheavg 52¢	$80.47	$78.92	-$1.55	34% 362-700 (1062)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Avalancheavg 76¢	$30.4	$37.2	+$6.8	83% 468-98 (566)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Avalancheavg 52¢	$23.53	$23.08	-$0.45	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
PA Pan9X<$100	Avalancheavg 52¢	$19.24	$6.97	+$5.47	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 24¢	$1.6	$3.26	+$1.67	36% 577-1014 (1591)
38 38791873984189<$100	Avalancheavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.11	-$0.02	47% 2408-2683 (5091)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Senators

Invested

$154.69

Value

$149.26

PnL

-$5.42

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Senators

Invested

$135.9

Value

$140.43

PnL

+$4.53

Record

48%

581-620 (1201)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$80.47

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$1.55

Record

34%

362-700 (1062)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$30.4

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$6.8

Record

83%

468-98 (566)

Flaznorp<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$23.53

Value

$23.08

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Pan9X<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$19.24

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$5.47

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$1.6

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$1.67

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

38791873984189<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Research grade

AvoidSenators at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Senators

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Senators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSenators 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Senators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.8%

4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1636.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

1736.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.