Spread: Senators (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (67%) · Avalanche at 70¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 13

Senators31¢Avalanche69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Avalanche

Consensus Traders

Avalanche 67%

Total Value

$31.8K

Combined PnL

$17.93

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 69.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Senators31%

Avalanche70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Avalanche6 traders

Total Value$22.0K

Total Shares31,565

Combined PnL-$143.36

Senators3 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares32,348

Combined PnL+$161.29

Avalanche — 67%Senators — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAvalanche 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Avalancheavg 70¢	$20.1K	$19.9K	-$143.37	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
CH chubbytoroCTR	Senatorsavg 30¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$159.71	27% 7-19 (26)
0xheavy888	Avalancheavg 70¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.05	55% 294-243 (537)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Avalancheavg 70¢	$560	$560	+$0	19% 211-905 (1116)
38 38791873984189CTR	Senatorsavg 29.8¢	$334.26	$123.74	+$1.58	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Avalancheavg 70¢	$42	$42	+$0	42% 98-135 (233)
GH ghorrock<$100	Avalancheavg 70¢	$23.79	$15.6	-$0	54% 1043-906 (1949)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 30¢	$4.5	$4.5	+$0	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Avalancheavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.5	-$0.05	38% 507-819 (1326)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Avalanche

Invested

$20,071.12

Value

$19.9K

PnL

-$143.37

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

chubbytoroCTR

Senators

Invested

$9,579.76

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$159.71

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

0xheavy888

Avalanche

Invested

$1,403.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

294-243 (537)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Avalanche

Invested

$560

Value

$560

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

211-905 (1116)

38791873984189CTR

Senators

Invested

$334.26

Value

$123.74

PnL

+$1.58

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$42

Value

$42

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

98-135 (233)

ghorrock<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$23.79

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

1043-906 (1949)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

ameisgoat11<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

507-819 (1326)

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAvalanche 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Avalanche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.