Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 39¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 13

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 38.5¢

-29% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares16,375

Combined PnL+$743.59

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares16,490

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 45.7¢	$6.9K	$7.6K	+$655.01	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Underavg 56¢	$6.2K	$4.2K	$-1.9K	22% 31-107 (138)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 51¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$148.27	52% 411-380 (791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 44¢	$458.86	$516.71	+$57.85	54% 1122-947 (2069)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50¢	$229.67	$215.81	-$13.86	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49.8¢	$131.01	$161.75	+$30.74	42% 331-451 (782)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$10.72	$11.19	+$0.47	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$7.04	$7.76	+$0.72	56% 4632-3618 (8250)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$6,921.43

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$655.01

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

luckycat888888CTR

Under

Invested

$6,159.99

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

22%

31-107 (138)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$2,635.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$148.27

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$458.86

Value

$516.71

PnL

+$57.85

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$229.67

Value

$215.81

PnL

-$13.86

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$131.01

Value

$161.75

PnL

+$30.74

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.72

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.72

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.