Spread: 76ers (-6.5)

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (9%) · 76ers at 62¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 13

76ers62¢Raptors38¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 9%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

-$20.71

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

76ers62%

Raptors38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers1 trader

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares17,821

Combined PnL+$187.46

Raptors10 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares16,646

Combined PnL-$208.18

76ers — 9%Raptors — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	76ersavg 61.9¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$187.46	59% 17-12 (29)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Raptorsavg 38.2¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$290.59	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
HI hi774cCTR	Raptorsavg 38¢	$586.97	$772.33	+$185.36	15% 85-486 (571)
LI LimousinCTR	Raptorsavg 38.6¢	$622.88	$604.57	-$18.31	31% 438-969 (1407)
BI biying99999CTR	Raptorsavg 37.3¢	$486.6	$449.53	-$37.07	29% 58-145 (203)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Raptorsavg 40¢	$435.08	$402.54	-$32.54	31% 441-967 (1408)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Raptorsavg 36¢	$371.82	$356.32	-$15.49	37% 179-310 (489)
VE VenusianCTR	Raptorsavg 36¢	$104.64	$109	+$4.36	31% 444-971 (1415)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$39.63	$39.12	-$0.51	47% 350-393 (743)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 37.7¢	$26.4	$24.15	-$2.25	55% 218-176 (394)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$22.27	$21.13	-$1.14	32% 444-952 (1396)

bigbeliever

76ers

Invested

$11,039.83

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$187.46

Record

59%

17-12 (29)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Raptors

Invested

$4,334.27

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$290.59

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

hi774cCTR

Raptors

Invested

$586.97

Value

$772.33

PnL

+$185.36

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

LimousinCTR

Raptors

Invested

$622.88

Value

$604.57

PnL

-$18.31

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

biying99999CTR

Raptors

Invested

$486.6

Value

$449.53

PnL

-$37.07

Record

29%

58-145 (203)

LightParadoxCTR

Raptors

Invested

$435.08

Value

$402.54

PnL

-$32.54

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

LuckyLooCTR

Raptors

Invested

$371.82

Value

$356.32

PnL

-$15.49

Record

37%

179-310 (489)

VenusianCTR

Raptors

Invested

$104.64

Value

$109

PnL

+$4.36

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$39.63

Value

$39.12

PnL

-$0.51

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$26.4

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$2.25

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$22.27

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$1.14

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.