Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (58%) · 76ers at 71¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Raptors30¢76ers70¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$110.66

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 70.5¢

+32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors30%

76ers71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,475

Combined PnL+$139.81

Raptors5 traders

Total Value$556.22

Total Shares1,702

Combined PnL-$29.15

76ers — 58%Raptors — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	76ersavg 51.9¢	$554.86	$590.26	+$35.39	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
RN1	76ersavg 56.8¢	$374.84	$425.7	+$50.86	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 44.5¢	$370.98	$365.69	-$5.29	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 44.5¢	$252.18	$252.4	+$0.22
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.2¢	$118.81	$113.29	-$5.52
betdgeCTR	Raptorsavg 42¢	$420	$350	-$70	45% 33-40 (73)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 44¢	$329.06	$330.35	+$1.3	52% 411-380 (791)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 44¢	$180.56	$176.45	-$4.1
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 55¢	$148.5	$153.9	+$5.4
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	76ersavg 53.4¢	$202.97	$239.26	+$36.28	54% 1122-947 (2069)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 76¢	$151.44	$129.02	-$22.42	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 44¢	$65.56	$66.31	+$0.75
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 76¢	$85.88	$62.72	-$23.16
AN Anon455	76ersavg 54¢	$112.38	$116.54	+$4.16	49% 303-310 (613)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Raptorsavg 18¢	$79.72	$115.15	+$35.43	35% 657-1232 (1889)
SU suitcase6628	76ersavg 52¢	$104	$111	+$7	63% 392-229 (621)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 21.4¢	$44.33	$53.81	+$9.48	33% 629-1267 (1896)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 55.5¢	$46.96	$31.02	-$4.11	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
TA takeormake<$100	76ersavg 52.2¢	$42.45	$29.94	+$2.32	58% 3338-2406 (5744)
FL Flaznorp<$100	76ersavg 43¢	$7.42	$11.22	+$3.8	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 56¢	$6.19	$6.24	+$0.06	48% 367-391 (758)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

76ers

Invested

$554.86

Value

$590.26

PnL

+$35.39

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$374.84

Value

$425.7

PnL

+$50.86

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$370.98

Value

$365.69

PnL

-$5.29

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

Both legs:

Raptors$252.1844.5¢+$0.22

76ers$118.8158.2¢-$5.52

betdgeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$420

Value

$350

PnL

-$70

Record

45%

33-40 (73)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$329.06

Value

$330.35

PnL

+$1.3

Record

52%

411-380 (791)

Both legs:

Raptors$180.5644¢-$4.1

76ers$148.555¢+$5.4

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

76ers

Invested

$202.97

Value

$239.26

PnL

+$36.28

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$151.44

Value

$129.02

PnL

-$22.42

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Raptors$65.5644¢+$0.75

76ers$85.8876¢-$23.16

Anon455

76ers

Invested

$112.38

Value

$116.54

PnL

+$4.16

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

MadridTimeCTR

Raptors

Invested

$79.72

Value

$115.15

PnL

+$35.43

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

suitcase6628

76ers

Invested

$104

Value

$111

PnL

+$7

Record

63%

392-229 (621)

VenusianCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$44.33

Value

$53.81

PnL

+$9.48

Record

33%

629-1267 (1896)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$46.96

Value

$31.02

PnL

-$4.11

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

takeormake<$100

76ers

Invested

$42.45

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$2.32

Record

58%

3338-2406 (5744)

Flaznorp<$100

76ers

Invested

$7.42

Value

$11.22

PnL

+$3.8

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.