Spread: Pistons (-8.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (58%) · Wizards at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Pistons44¢Wizards56¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$7.64

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 56.5¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pistons44%

Wizards56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$980.91

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL-$27.65

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$423.71

Total Shares758

Combined PnL+$35.29

Wizards — 58%Pistons — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Wizardsavg 48.6¢	$510.5	$451.5	-$59	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pistonsavg 55¢	$309.43	$308.57	-$0.87	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 55¢	$217.25	$205.4	-$11.85
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 42.9¢	$92.18	$103.17	+$10.98
RN1ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 56.9¢	$594.99	$305.83	-$114.15	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 56.9¢	$232.74	$177.81	-$54.94
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 57.2¢	$129.55	$128.02	-$59.22
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Pistonsavg 43¢	$272.31	$296.84	+$24.52	54% 1122-947 (2069)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Wizardsavg 51.5¢	$154.5	$160.5	+$6	48% 367-391 (758)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51¢	$152.63	$146.03	-$6.6	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$88.23	$92.56	+$4.33
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 56¢	$64.4	$53.48	-$10.93
JU justaluckydude	Wizardsavg 45¢	$94.74	$118.95	+$24.21	42% 331-451 (782)
VeryLucky888	Wizardsavg 42.7¢	$110.33	$112.52	+$2.19	53% 852-766 (1618)
LI Limousin<$100	Wizardsavg 43¢	$69.77	$70.58	+$0.81	33% 620-1253 (1873)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 42.6¢	$49.49	$60.38	+$10.89	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 56¢	$59.12	$59.65	+$0.53	49% 303-310 (613)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Wizardsavg 44¢	$39.84	$39.39	-$0.45	47% 564-628 (1192)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wizardsavg 51.2¢	$40.88	$27.47	-$1.41	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Pistonsavg 60¢	$4.76	$4.68	-$0.08	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.18	-$0.58	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

6512395314597884

Wizards

Invested

$510.5

Value

$451.5

PnL

-$59

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$309.43

Value

$308.57

PnL

-$0.87

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Pistons$217.2555¢-$11.85

Wizards$92.1842.9¢+$10.98

RN1ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$594.99

Value

$305.83

PnL

-$114.15

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

Pistons$232.7456.9¢-$54.94

Wizards$129.5557.2¢-$59.22

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Pistons

Invested

$272.31

Value

$296.84

PnL

+$24.52

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

CandleHammerDrums

Wizards

Invested

$154.5

Value

$160.5

PnL

+$6

Record

48%

367-391 (758)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$152.63

Value

$146.03

PnL

-$6.6

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Wizards$88.2351¢+$4.33

Pistons$64.456¢-$10.93

justaluckydude

Wizards

Invested

$94.74

Value

$118.95

PnL

+$24.21

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

VeryLucky888

Wizards

Invested

$110.33

Value

$112.52

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

Limousin<$100

Wizards

Invested

$69.77

Value

$70.58

PnL

+$0.81

Record

33%

620-1253 (1873)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$49.49

Value

$60.38

PnL

+$10.89

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

Anon455CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$59.12

Value

$59.65

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

SnakeBall<$100

Wizards

Invested

$39.84

Value

$39.39

PnL

-$0.45

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

Pan9X<$100

Wizards

Invested

$40.88

Value

$27.47

PnL

-$1.41

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

suntoriCTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.58

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.