Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Raptors (53%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (57%) · 76ers at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
7
76ers 57%
$1.0K
-$0.24
47.1¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE VenusianCTR | 76ersavg 46.9¢ | $528.78 | $535.09 | +$6.31 | 31% 444-971 (1415) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Raptorsavg 52¢ | $642.4 | $342.71 | -$10.17 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 48¢ | $39.93 | $40.34 | +$0.42 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Raptorsavg 50.5¢ | $33.36 | $33.98 | +$0.61 | 55% 218-176 (394) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 50¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 45¢ | $23.03 | $25.59 | +$2.56 | 31% 441-967 (1408) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Raptorsavg 50¢ | $3 | $3.03 | +$0.03 | 38% 99-159 (258) |
Invested
$528.78
Value
$535.09
PnL
+$6.31
Record
31%
444-971 (1415)
Invested
$642.4
Value
$342.71
PnL
-$10.17
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$39.93
Value
$40.34
PnL
+$0.42
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$33.36
Value
$33.98
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
218-176 (394)
Invested
$32
Value
$32
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$23.03
Value
$25.59
PnL
+$2.56
Record
31%
441-967 (1408)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
38%
99-159 (258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.