Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Olivia Gadecki, while the market favors Joanna Garland (94%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Olivia Gadecki

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Olivia Gadecki (86%) · Olivia Gadecki at 6.5¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 20

Joanna Garland94¢Olivia Gadecki6¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Olivia Gadecki

Consensus Traders

Olivia Gadecki 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$139.18

Smart Money Entry

27¢ → 6.5¢

-76% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOlivia Gadecki at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Olivia Gadecki

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Joanna Garland 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Joanna Garland94%

Olivia Gadecki7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Olivia Gadecki6 traders

Total Value$167.07

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL-$139.26

Joanna Garland1 trader

Total Value$4.83

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.08

Olivia Gadecki — 86%Joanna Garland — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Olivia Gadecki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOlivia Gadecki 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOlivia Gadecki 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Olivia Gadecki 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$52.5	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Joanna Garland leg	Joanna Garlandavg 50¢	$525	$819	+$294
└ Olivia Gadecki leg	Olivia Gadeckiavg 50¢	$525	$283.5	-$241.5
RN1CTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 28.9¢	$97.04	$70.89	-$26.15	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 28¢	$56	$42	-$14	36% 577-1014 (1591)
poshposhCTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 27¢	$25.96	$20.19	-$5.77	48% 703-766 (1469)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 28.4¢	$78.85	$18.04	-$60.82	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 21.4¢	$45.62	$13.85	-$31.78	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Joanna Garlandavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.83	+$0.08	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Olivia Gadeckiavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$2.1	-$0.75	49% 148-156 (304)

NotJumpARB<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Joanna Garland$52550¢+$294

Olivia Gadecki$52550¢-$241.5

RN1CTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$97.04

Value

$70.89

PnL

-$26.15

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$56

Value

$42

PnL

-$14

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

poshposhCTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$25.96

Value

$20.19

PnL

-$5.77

Record

48%

703-766 (1469)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$78.85

Value

$18.04

PnL

-$60.82

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$45.62

Value

$13.85

PnL

-$31.78

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Flaznorp<$100

Joanna Garland

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Olivia Gadecki

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

148-156 (304)

Research grade

AvoidOlivia Gadecki at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Olivia Gadecki

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Joanna Garland 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Olivia Gadecki. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOlivia Gadecki 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOlivia Gadecki 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Olivia Gadecki 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Olivia Gadecki wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.