Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$1.1K
$3.68
54.1¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54.7¢ | $708.71 | $705.95 | -$2.75 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $110.4 | $116.4 | +$6 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.7¢ | $13.7 | $13.65 | -$0.05 | 55% 218-176 (394) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $11.21 | $11.82 | +$0.61 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $4.52 | $4.57 | +$0.05 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.58 | -$0.17 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
Invested
$708.71
Value
$705.95
PnL
-$2.75
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
Invested
$110.4
Value
$116.4
PnL
+$6
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
$13.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
55%
218-176 (394)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$11.82
PnL
+$0.61
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.52
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0.17
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.