Spread: Devils (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (50%) · Capitals at 64¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Capitals
8
Capitals 50%
$27.4K
-$5.12
64¢ → 63.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCapitals at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Capitalsavg 64¢ | $16.2K | $16.0K | -$126.28 | 51% 2067-1978 (4045) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Devilsavg 36¢ | $9.8K | $9.9K | +$135.65 | 53% 102-90 (192) |
 0xheavy888 | Capitalsavg 64¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$10.5 | 54% 274-237 (511) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Devilsavg 36¢ | $148.29 | $144.17 | -$4.12 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Capitalsavg 64¢ | $16 | $16.25 | +$0.25 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Devilsavg 36¢ | $4.24 | $4.12 | -$0.12 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Capitalsavg 64¢ | $3.2 | $3.18 | -$0.03 | 66% 1764-907 (2671) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Devilsavg 35¢ | $1.08 | $1.09 | +$0.02 | 37% 37-62 (99) |
Invested
$16,163.42
Value
$16.0K
PnL
-$126.28
Record
51%
2067-1978 (4045)
Invested
$9,766.78
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$135.65
Record
53%
102-90 (192)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,344
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$10.5
Record
54%
274-237 (511)
Invested
$148.29
Value
$144.17
PnL
-$4.12
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$16
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$4.12
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.18
PnL
-$0.03
Record
66%
1764-907 (2671)
Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
37-62 (99)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.