Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maple Leafs, while the market favors Wild (53%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Wild (-1.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (77%) · Maple Leafs at 48¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Wild53¢Maple Leafs47¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$59

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 47.5¢

-23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wild53%

Maple Leafs48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maple Leafs10 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,709

Combined PnL-$18.63

Wild3 traders

Total Value$458.95

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$77.63

Maple Leafs — 77%Wild — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$28.9	41% 49-71 (120)
└ Maple Leafs leg	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 38¢	$549.06	$577.95	+$28.9
fyrskenCTR	Maple Leafsavg 61¢	$494.1	$486	-$8.1	48% 30-32 (62)
NO NordhavenCap	Wildavg 37¢	$195	$276.69	+$81.69	23% 58-198 (256)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Maple Leafsavg 63¢	$256.63	$260.7	+$4.07	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
CH chubbytoro	Wildavg 39¢	$179.18	$174.59	-$4.59	27% 7-19 (26)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$89.56	$89.56	-$0	42% 27-37 (64)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$60	$60	+$0	56% 312-248 (560)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 63.5¢	$50.99	$38.14	-$12.85	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$27.6	$27.83	+$0.23	43% 119-161 (280)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$30.99	$25.52	+$0.53	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$23.68	$23.87	+$0.2	48% 581-618 (1199)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$14.97	$14.97	+$0	53% 1117-973 (2090)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 63.9¢	$10.58	$7.87	-$2.71	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Wildavg 47¢	$7.14	$7.68	+$0.53	36% 559-993 (1552)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,229.09

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$28.9

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

Both legs:

Maple Leafs$1,680.0360¢+$0

Wild$549.0638¢+$28.9

fyrskenCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$494.1

Value

$486

PnL

-$8.1

Record

48%

30-32 (62)

NordhavenCap

Wild

Invested

$195

Value

$276.69

PnL

+$81.69

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$256.63

Value

$260.7

PnL

+$4.07

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

chubbytoro

Wild

Invested

$179.18

Value

$174.59

PnL

-$4.59

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

0x0A77exmmCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$89.56

Value

$89.56

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

27-37 (64)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$60

Value

$60

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$50.99

Value

$38.14

PnL

-$12.85

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.83

PnL

+$0.23

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$30.99

Value

$25.52

PnL

+$0.53

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$23.68

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$14.97

Value

$14.97

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$10.58

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$2.71

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

topdogbigboi<$100

Wild

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.68

PnL

+$0.53

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.