Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Timberwolves (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (57%) · Mavericks at 45¢ · $343 held · ends Nov 13

Timberwolves56¢Mavericks44¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 57%

Total Value

$343.18

Combined PnL

$5.05

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves56%

Mavericks45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$254.86

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$2.66

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$88.3

Total Shares159

Combined PnL+$2.39

Mavericks — 57%Timberwolves — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 44¢	$228.35	$230.94	+$2.59	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$51.42	$52.85	+$1.43	47% 1724-1982 (3706)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$29.09	$29.9	+$0.81	54% 529-455 (984)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$19.3	$19.52	+$0.22	41% 614-874 (1488)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Timberwolvesavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.55	+$0.15	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.2	-$0.1	34% 610-1204 (1814)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.2	-$0.05	38% 507-819 (1326)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$228.35

Value

$230.94

PnL

+$2.59

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$51.42

Value

$52.85

PnL

+$1.43

Record

47%

1724-1982 (3706)

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$29.09

Value

$29.9

PnL

+$0.81

Record

54%

529-455 (984)

sentrioCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.52

PnL

+$0.22

Record

41%

614-874 (1488)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

610-1204 (1814)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

507-819 (1326)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.