Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 213.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$2.3K
$26.99
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 52¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$12.43 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 46.2¢ | $794.37 | $808.93 | +$14.55 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $10.59 | $10.59 | -$0 | 54% 281-239 (520) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 38% 494-814 (1308) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | -$0 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,419.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$12.43
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$794.37
Value
$808.93
PnL
+$14.55
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.59
Value
$10.59
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
281-239 (520)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
494-814 (1308)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.