Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 5.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$76.07

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 35.5¢

-11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,523

Combined PnL+$42.49

Over2 traders

Total Value$348.34

Total Shares525

Combined PnL+$33.58

Under — 78%Over — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 40¢	$915.9	$905.57	+$22.64	56% 312-248 (560)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 40¢	$659.54	$676.03	+$16.49	19% 127-534 (661)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 60¢	$310	$343.58	+$33.58	23% 58-198 (256)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 40¢	$115.79	$117.24	+$1.45	51% 2112-2051 (4163)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$88.28	$88.28	-$0	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$70	$71.75	+$1.75	43% 119-161 (280)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$5.28	$5.41	+$0.13	53% 1117-973 (2090)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 59¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.19	$1.22	+$0.03	57% 3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$915.9

Value

$905.57

PnL

+$22.64

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$659.54

Value

$676.03

PnL

+$16.49

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$310

Value

$343.58

PnL

+$33.58

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$115.79

Value

$117.24

PnL

+$1.45

Record

51%

2112-2051 (4163)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.28

Value

$88.28

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$71.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.