Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$22.4
53¢ → 55.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$41.35 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $914.8 | $866.84 | -$47.95 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $236.7 | $243.3 | +$6.6 | |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 53.1¢ | $523.29 | $547.23 | +$23.94 | 52% 350-326 (676) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $178.07 | $176.22 | -$1.85 | 46% 438-515 (953) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $168.95 | $111.25 | +$0.96 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $61.32 | $60.74 | -$0.58 | 48% 116-124 (240) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $12.43 | $12.43 | +$0 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44.8¢ | $11.37 | $11.3 | -$0.07 | 54% 272-234 (506) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.58 | $2.58 | -$0 | 19% 126-532 (658) |
Invested
$1,151.49
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$41.35
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
Both legs:
nigiri99Invested
$523.29
Value
$547.23
PnL
+$23.94
Record
52%
350-326 (676)
Invested
$178.07
Value
$176.22
PnL
-$1.85
Record
46%
438-515 (953)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$168.95
Value
$111.25
PnL
+$0.96
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$61.32
Value
$60.74
PnL
-$0.58
Record
48%
116-124 (240)
Invested
$12.43
Value
$12.43
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$11.37
Value
$11.3
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
272-234 (506)
Invested
$2.58
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$0
Record
19%
126-532 (658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.