Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jay Dylan Friend, while the market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu (76%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Matsuyama: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Jay Dylan Friend

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Dylan Friend (53%) · Jay Dylan Friend at 25¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 20

Yu-Hsiou Hsu76¢Jay Dylan Friend24¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jay Dylan Friend

Consensus Traders

Jay Dylan Friend 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$13.79

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 24.5¢

-55% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJay Dylan Friend at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yu-Hsiou Hsu76%

Jay Dylan Friend25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jay Dylan Friend9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,706

Combined PnL-$32.92

Yu-Hsiou Hsu8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,000

Combined PnL+$46.71

Jay Dylan Friend — 53%Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jay Dylan Friend) and the top 1000 (6 on Yu-Hsiou Hsu) disagree here.

ctrJay Dylan Friend 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Dylan Friend 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yu-Hsiou Hsu 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Jay Dylan Friendavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$12.7	52% 881-800 (1681)
PR prabam	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 43¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.91	52% 12-11 (23)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$919.18	-$13.71	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 50¢	$432.75	$644.8	+$243.41
└ Jay Dylan Friend leg	Jay Dylan Friendavg 49.4¢	$531.5	$274.38	-$257.12
0xheavy888CTR	Jay Dylan Friendavg 57¢	$515.35	$519.87	+$4.52	56% 324-253 (577)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jay Dylan Friendavg 56¢	$319.76	$325.47	+$5.71	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
FL Flaznorp	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 70.6¢	$239.44	$230.26	-$9.18	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 61.3¢	$66.08	$81.32	+$15.24	36% 320-570 (890)
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 37.8¢	$79.17	$74.43	-$4.73	38% 105-174 (279)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 39.2¢	$73.53	$64.71	-$8.82	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 48.3¢	$41.28	$62.56	+$21.27	56% 3933-3092 (7025)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Jay Dylan Friendavg 44.2¢	$101.24	$57.37	-$42.57	46% 183-214 (397)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 52.4¢	$46.19	$39.38	+$15.87	31% 186-409 (595)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 70.5¢	$21.15	$22.65	+$1.5	27% 195-528 (723)
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 28¢	$18.2	$18.53	+$0.32	28% 171-435 (606)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 42¢	$17.6	$18.02	+$0.42	35% 700-1328 (2028)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 41¢	$13.9	$14.58	+$0.68	45% 143-173 (316)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	42% 719-993 (1712)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jay Dylan Friendavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	-$0	38% 512-824 (1336)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$1,447.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.7

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

prabam

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,439.58

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.91

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

NotJumpARB<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$1,056.5

Value

$919.18

PnL

-$13.71

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$432.7550¢+$243.41

Jay Dylan Friend$531.549.4¢-$257.12

0xheavy888CTR

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$515.35

Value

$519.87

PnL

+$4.52

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

38791873984189CTR

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$319.76

Value

$325.47

PnL

+$5.71

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Flaznorp

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$239.44

Value

$230.26

PnL

-$9.18

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

pauleta23<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$66.08

Value

$81.32

PnL

+$15.24

Record

36%

320-570 (890)

1lovejumpCTR<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$79.17

Value

$74.43

PnL

-$4.73

Record

38%

105-174 (279)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$73.53

Value

$64.71

PnL

-$8.82

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$41.28

Value

$62.56

PnL

+$21.27

Record

56%

3933-3092 (7025)

thirdt1meCTR

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$101.24

Value

$57.37

PnL

-$42.57

Record

46%

183-214 (397)

thestingsnake<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$46.19

Value

$39.38

PnL

+$15.87

Record

31%

186-409 (595)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$21.15

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$1.5

Record

27%

195-528 (723)

babybellsCTR<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$18.2

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$0.32

Record

28%

171-435 (606)

LightParadox<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$17.6

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$0.42

Record

35%

700-1328 (2028)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$13.9

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$0.68

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

719-993 (1712)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jay Dylan Friend

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

Research grade

AvoidJay Dylan Friend at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jay Dylan Friend

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yu-Hsiou Hsu 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jay Dylan Friend) and the top 1000 (6 on Yu-Hsiou Hsu) disagree here.

ctrJay Dylan Friend 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedJay Dylan Friend 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yu-Hsiou Hsu 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jay Dylan Friend wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.