Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 40¢ · $350 held · ends Nov 13

Over61¢Under39¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

Total Value

$350.41

Combined PnL

-$1.03

Smart Money Entry

39.2¢ → 39.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$321.98

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$1.26

Over1 trader

Total Value$28.44

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.24

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 39.3¢	$164.43	$163.08	-$1.35	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$79.04	$79.04	-$0	56% 312-248 (560)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 60¢	$28.2	$28.44	+$0.24	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$26.13	$26.47	+$0.33	43% 119-161 (280)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$23.4	$23.4	+$0	19% 127-534 (661)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39.8¢	$19.77	$19.38	-$0.38	53% 1117-973 (2090)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$8.53	$8.64	+$0.11	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.98	+$0.03	38% 509-821 (1330)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$164.43

Value

$163.08

PnL

-$1.35

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.04

Value

$79.04

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$28.2

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.13

Value

$26.47

PnL

+$0.33

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

hi774cCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.4

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.77

Value

$19.38

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.53

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.