Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (30%) · Mavericks at 60¢ · $755 held · ended Nov 13

Timberwolves40¢Mavericks60¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$754.89

Combined PnL

-$57.83

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 60¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves40%

Mavericks60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$521.1

Total Shares750

Combined PnL+$2.4

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$135.29

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$60.22

Mavericks — 30%Timberwolves — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Mavericksavg 67.6¢	$257.09	$219.08	+$13	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
TA takeormake	Mavericksavg 57.3¢	$140.38	$151.9	+$11.52	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
65 6512395314597884	Mavericksavg 67¢	$172.24	$150.12	-$22.12	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mavericksavg 69¢	$107.97	$98.5	-$9.48	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 69¢	$68.73	$71.22	+$2.49
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$39.24	$27.27	-$11.97
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 34¢	$51	$49.5	-$1.5	48% 372-397 (769)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$351.22	$48.76	-$48.16	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 37¢	$32.19	$26.97	-$5.22	48% 627-689 (1316)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 44¢	$25.96	$6.26	-$4.02	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 37¢	$2.22	$1.86	-$0.36	45% 178-222 (400)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.55	-$0.9	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 36¢	$0.45	$0.39	-$0.06	47% 2408-2683 (5091)

RN1

Mavericks

Invested

$257.09

Value

$219.08

PnL

+$13

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

takeormake

Mavericks

Invested

$140.38

Value

$151.9

PnL

+$11.52

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

6512395314597884

Mavericks

Invested

$172.24

Value

$150.12

PnL

-$22.12

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$107.97

Value

$98.5

PnL

-$9.48

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Mavericks$68.7369¢+$2.49

Timberwolves$39.2441¢-$11.97

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$51

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

372-397 (769)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$351.22

Value

$48.76

PnL

-$48.16

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$32.19

Value

$26.97

PnL

-$5.22

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$25.96

Value

$6.26

PnL

-$4.02

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.22

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.36

Record

45%

178-222 (400)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.9

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTimberwolves 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.