Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Over
9
Over 56%
$2.2K
$14.6
51.4¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$25.11 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
D7 0xd70b...dcb1CTR | Underavg 54¢ | $454.23 | $445.82 | -$8.41 | — 7-9 (16) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Overavg 50¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 100% 71-0 (71) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $120 | $118.75 | -$1.25 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $22.78 | $23 | +$0.22 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48.5¢ | $19.4 | $19 | -$0.4 | 55% 218-176 (394) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $17.69 | $17.02 | -$0.67 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $5.41 | $5.47 | +$0.05 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.35 | -$0.05 | 31% 438-969 (1407) |
Invested
$1,363.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$25.11
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$454.23
Value
$445.82
PnL
-$8.41
Record
—
7-9 (16)
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
71-0 (71)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120
Value
$118.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$22.78
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.22
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$19
PnL
-$0.4
Record
55%
218-176 (394)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$17.02
PnL
-$0.67
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
438-969 (1407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.