Spread: Suns (-6.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (86%) · Hornets at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
7
Hornets 86%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$5.72
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Sunsavg 49¢ | $329.87 | $333.24 | +$3.37 | 2% 8-502 (510) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $333.15 | $333.15 | +$0 | 57% 3445-2621 (6066) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $400 | $198 | -$2 | 84% 92-17 (109) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 50¢ | $100 | $98 | -$2 | |
38 38791873984189 | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $141.64 | $65.16 | +$2.53 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $48.5 | $48.99 | +$0.48 | 52% 737-689 (1426) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Hornetsavg 51¢ | $39.92 | $39.14 | -$0.78 | 46% 433-502 (935) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $10 | $10.1 | +$0.1 | 54% 266-226 (492) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Hornetsavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.53 | +$0.02 | 32% 522-1096 (1618) |
Invested
$329.87
Value
$333.24
PnL
+$3.37
Record
2%
8-502 (510)
Invested
$333.15
Value
$333.15
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3445-2621 (6066)
Invested
$400
Value
$198
PnL
-$2
Record
84%
92-17 (109)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.64
Value
$65.16
PnL
+$2.53
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$48.5
Value
$48.99
PnL
+$0.48
Record
52%
737-689 (1426)
Invested
$39.92
Value
$39.14
PnL
-$0.78
Record
46%
433-502 (935)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
266-226 (492)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
522-1096 (1618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.