Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors 76ers (60%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (75%) · Raptors at 41¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
8
Raptors 75%
$211.24
$5.31
37.3¢ → 40.5¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI Siddhartha1CTR | Raptorsavg 38¢ | $138.16 | $139.98 | +$1.82 | 58% 98-70 (168) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 35¢ | $26.92 | $29.23 | +$2.31 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
SU suntori<$100 | 76ersavg 62.9¢ | $13.99 | $13.67 | -$0.32 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 35.3¢ | $11.57 | $12.61 | +$1.03 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 38.8¢ | $8.14 | $8.09 | -$0.05 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | 76ersavg 61¢ | $3.03 | $3.06 | +$0.02 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 35¢ | $2.41 | $2.65 | +$0.24 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $1.7 | $1.96 | +$0.26 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
Invested
$138.16
Value
$139.98
PnL
+$1.82
Record
58%
98-70 (168)
Invested
$26.92
Value
$29.23
PnL
+$2.31
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$13.67
PnL
-$0.32
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$12.61
PnL
+$1.03
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
Invested
$8.14
Value
$8.09
PnL
-$0.05
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
Invested
$3.03
Value
$3.06
PnL
+$0.02
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$2.41
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0.24
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.