Spread: Suns (-7.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (33%) · Hornets at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Suns46¢Hornets54¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 33%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$3.22

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns46%

Hornets55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,086

Combined PnL-$4.51

Suns4 traders

Total Value$196.38

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$1.29

Hornets — 33%Suns — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Hornetsavg 54.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.34	69% 2600-1194 (3794)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sunsavg 45¢	$126.49	$127.9	+$1.41	52% 661-616 (1277)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Sunsavg 46¢	$39.93	$39.49	-$0.43	47% 394-451 (845)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Sunsavg 45¢	$19.67	$19.89	+$0.22	41% 490-712 (1202)
SU suntori<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$19.04	$18.87	-$0.17	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Sunsavg 45¢	$9	$9.1	+$0.1	54% 236-199 (435)

purplegatto

Hornets

Invested

$1,122.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$4.34

Record

69%

2600-1194 (3794)

VeryLucky888CTR

Suns

Invested

$126.49

Value

$127.9

PnL

+$1.41

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$39.93

Value

$39.49

PnL

-$0.43

Record

47%

394-451 (845)

sentrioCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$19.67

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$0.22

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

suntori<$100

Hornets

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.87

PnL

-$0.17

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

236-199 (435)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.