Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Record (consensus markets)57% (28–21, n=49)92% (11–1, n=12)74% (1443–503, n=1946)46% (323–386, n=709)
Consensus PnL$758K$5.8K$298K$250K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #885PM monthly #45PM monthly #26
Sides with the consensus52% (12 of 23 open)83% (30 of 36 open)60% (169 of 282 open)62% (67 of 108 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +48 pts n=22, ROI +45%
not computed yet
Weakest topic——College Basketball −3 pts, n=123—
Settled positions, side won100% of 31 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%—48% of 490 at avg 48¢, ROI 0%100% of 228 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%
Entries under 30¢0%—32% (won 5% of 159)7% (won 100% of 15)
Entries 30–50¢48% (won 100% of 15)—24% (won 43% of 119)39% (won 100% of 88)
Entries 50–70¢45% (won 100% of 14)—14% (won 61% of 70)47% (won 100% of 108)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 100% of 2)—29% (won 95% of 142)7% (won 100% of 17)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

34 on the same side, 34 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankD8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Spread: 76ers (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $110K—76ers $15K76ers $40K
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $134K—76ers $1.1K76ers $2.6K
Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raptors
Raptors $230—76ers $3.1K76ers $33K
Spread: 76ers (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
Raptors $31K—Raptors $6776ers $1.9K
Spread: 76ers (-10.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $111—Raptors $416Raptors $5.6K
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $380K——Commanders $79K
Spread: Giants (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Giants
Giants $144K——Commanders $40K
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
opposite sides · consensus Timberwolves
——Timberwolves $3.8KMavericks $14K
Spread: Suns (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
——Suns $634Hornets $17K
Spread: Devils (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Capitals
——Devils $69Capitals $14K
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 40.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $5.5K——Under $7.3K
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
——Raptors $1276ers $5.8K
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Wizards
——Wizards $2.7KPistons $3.1K
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $597Over $4.9K
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
opposite sides · consensus Wizards
——Pistons $807Wizards $3.5K
Avalanche vs. Senators
opposite sides · consensus Senators
——Avalanche $250Senators $3.7K
Wild vs. Maple Leafs
opposite sides · consensus Wild
——Wild $1.8KMaple Leafs $715
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $1.2KOver $326
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Over $1.0KUnder $115
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $818Over $173
Spread: Timberwolves (-9.5)
opposite sides · consensus Mavericks
——Timberwolves $757Mavericks $31
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 36.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
Over $146——Under $565
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $670Over $4
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus 76ers
——Raptors $26376ers $204
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
——Senators $316Avalanche $9
Sabres vs. Blackhawks
opposite sides · consensus Sabres
——Sabres $143Blackhawks $164
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $110Over $128
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $95Over $111
Spread: Senators (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Senators
——Avalanche $23Senators $149
Lightning vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $64Over $44
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 215.5
opposite sides · consensus Over
——Under $80Over $16
Blues vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
opposite sides · consensus Under
——Under $7Over $62
W75 Brisbane: Joanna Garland vs Olivia Gadecki
opposite sides · consensus Olivia Gadecki
——Joanna Garland $5Olivia Gadecki $58
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
——Stars $16Jets $13
Spread: Suns (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Hornets
——Hornets $12Suns $5
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
——Timberwolves $5.7KTimberwolves $53K
Jets vs. Stars
same side · consensus Stars
——Stars $342Stars $50K
Pistons vs. Wizards
same side · consensus Pistons
——Pistons $3.7KPistons $40K
Spread: 76ers (-9.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
Raptors $30K——Raptors $4.1K
Hornets vs. Suns: O/U 214.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $5Under $18K
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
same side · consensus Avalanche
——Avalanche $151Avalanche $11K
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
same side · consensus Timberwolves
——Mavericks $684Mavericks $7.1K
Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
——76ers $1.1K76ers $5.3K
Pistons vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
same side · consensus Under
——Over $297Over $6.1K
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
same side · consensus Wizards
——Wizards $3.3KWizards $1.4K
Hornets vs. Suns
same side · consensus Suns
——Suns $3.8KSuns $773
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $1.6KUnder $2.6K
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
same side · consensus Raptors
——Raptors $294Raptors $2.9K
Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 240.5
same side · consensus Under
——Under $2.0KUnder $1.1K
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)
same side · consensus 76ers
——76ers $2.2K76ers $844