Spread: 76ers (-9.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13

76ers49¢Raptors51¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$11.6

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

76ers49%

Raptors52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors4 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,645

Combined PnL+$81.92

76ers4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,552

Combined PnL-$93.52

Raptors — 50%76ers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Raptorsavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$62.68	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
AY ay118CTR	76ersavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$57	19% 21-89 (110)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Raptorsavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$17.1	54% 529-455 (984)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 53.9¢	$366.04	$329.03	-$36.84	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$30.82	$31.14	+$0.32	26% 152-427 (579)
0xheavy888<$100	Raptorsavg 46.5¢	$19.45	$21.34	+$1.89	54% 272-234 (506)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.8	+$0	33% 533-1106 (1639)
VE Venusian<$100	Raptorsavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.55	+$0.25	32% 536-1124 (1660)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Raptors

Invested

$2,089.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$62.68

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

ay118CTR

76ers

Invested

$1,900

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$57

Record

19%

21-89 (110)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Raptors

Invested

$1,744

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$17.1

Record

54%

529-455 (984)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$366.04

Value

$329.03

PnL

-$36.84

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

GC-PCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$30.82

Value

$31.14

PnL

+$0.32

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

0xheavy888<$100

Raptors

Invested

$19.45

Value

$21.34

PnL

+$1.89

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

LimousinCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

Venusian<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.