Jets vs. Stars
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Stars (86%) · Stars at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Stars
7
Stars 86%
$1.6K
-$18.23
62.4¢ → 61.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralStars at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Stars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Starsavg 62.2¢ | $800.83 | $791.86 | -$8.97 | 48% 82-88 (170) |
PA Pan9X | Starsavg 62.5¢ | $312.33 | $307.5 | -$4.83 | 49% 698-741 (1439) |
 nigiri99 | Starsavg 63¢ | $272.79 | $266.3 | -$6.5 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Starsavg 62.8¢ | $84.63 | $82.9 | -$1.73 | 55% 699-561 (1260) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Starsavg 62¢ | $55.8 | $55.35 | -$0.45 | 14% 29-180 (209) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 34¢ | $33.36 | $37.78 | +$4.42 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Starsavg 62¢ | $21.36 | $21.19 | -$0.17 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
Invested
$800.83
Value
$791.86
PnL
-$8.97
Record
48%
82-88 (170)
Invested
$312.33
Value
$307.5
PnL
-$4.83
Record
49%
698-741 (1439)
nigiri99Invested
$272.79
Value
$266.3
PnL
-$6.5
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$84.63
Value
$82.9
PnL
-$1.73
Record
55%
699-561 (1260)
Invested
$55.8
Value
$55.35
PnL
-$0.45
Record
14%
29-180 (209)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$33.36
Value
$37.78
PnL
+$4.42
Record
—
Invested
$21.36
Value
$21.19
PnL
-$0.17
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.