Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Commanders, while the market favors Giants (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Giants (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (50%) · Commanders at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Commanders
6
Commanders 50%
$3.1K
$4.95
48¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCommanders at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Giants 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Commandersavg 48¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Commandersavg 48¢ | $335.94 | $244.25 | +$1.39 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
SN SnakeBall | Giantsavg 51¢ | $129.69 | $132.24 | +$2.54 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
 VeryLucky888 | Giantsavg 52¢ | $138.87 | $120.26 | +$1.53 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100 | Commandersavg 48¢ | $44.67 | $44.2 | -$0.47 | 2% 5-316 (321) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Giantsavg 53¢ | $13.25 | $4.2 | -$0.04 | 49% 677-717 (1394) |
Invested
$2,543.24
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$335.94
Value
$244.25
PnL
+$1.39
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$129.69
Value
$132.24
PnL
+$2.54
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
VeryLucky888Invested
$138.87
Value
$120.26
PnL
+$1.53
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$44.67
Value
$44.2
PnL
-$0.47
Record
2%
5-316 (321)
Invested
$13.25
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.04
Record
49%
677-717 (1394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.