Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 36.5
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 89%
$1.1K
$41.24
33.5¢ → 34.5¢
+3% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 33.3¢ | $288.07 | $307.19 | +$19.12 | 47% 564-628 (1192) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 33.5¢ | $210.91 | $217.01 | +$6.1 | 52% 388-362 (750) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 34¢ | $170 | $172.5 | +$2.5 | 59% 3584-2449 (6033) |
BR BreakTheBank | Overavg 65¢ | $136.49 | $137.54 | +$1.05 | 42% 591-824 (1415) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $105.82 | $113.84 | +$8.02 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 34¢ | $102.18 | $103.68 | +$1.5 | 30% 193-457 (650) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $35.72 | $37.34 | +$1.62 | 28% 58-150 (208) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $18.14 | $18.97 | +$0.82 | 23% 193-656 (849) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $11.56 | $12.07 | +$0.51 | 44% 177-221 (398) |
Invested
$288.07
Value
$307.19
PnL
+$19.12
Record
47%
564-628 (1192)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$210.91
Value
$217.01
PnL
+$6.1
Record
52%
388-362 (750)
Invested
$170
Value
$172.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
59%
3584-2449 (6033)
Invested
$136.49
Value
$137.54
PnL
+$1.05
Record
42%
591-824 (1415)
Invested
$105.82
Value
$113.84
PnL
+$8.02
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$102.18
Value
$103.68
PnL
+$1.5
Record
30%
193-457 (650)
Invested
$35.72
Value
$37.34
PnL
+$1.62
Record
28%
58-150 (208)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$18.14
Value
$18.97
PnL
+$0.82
Record
23%
193-656 (849)
Invested
$11.56
Value
$12.07
PnL
+$0.51
Record
44%
177-221 (398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.