Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (79%) · Over at 47¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 79%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$83.26

Smart Money Entry

48.7¢ → 46.5¢

-4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,343

Combined PnL-$30.91

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,697

Combined PnL+$114.17

Over — 79%Under — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$43.52	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$71.79	48% 116-124 (240)
nigiri99	Underavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$34.45	52% 350-326 (676)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$362.38	$358.61	-$3.77	19% 126-532 (658)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$274.86	$282.79	+$7.93	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$272.72	$277.76	+$5.04	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$168	$173.25	+$5.25	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 48¢	$168	$173.25	+$5.25	26% 152-427 (579)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$240	$118.75	+$1.25	52% 754-704 (1458)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48.2¢	$65.95	$55.35	-$0.4	49% 1071-1128 (2199)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$43.2	$42.75	-$0.45	66% 1739-895 (2634)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$35.82	$36.43	+$0.61	53% 925-815 (1740)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.6	$9.5	-$0.1	54% 272-234 (506)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.11	$6.05	-$0.07	27% 102-276 (378)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,215.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$43.52

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

JoeyAroyyOO

Under

Invested

$1,464.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$71.79

Record

48%

116-124 (240)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,194.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$34.45

Record

52%

350-326 (676)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$362.38

Value

$358.61

PnL

-$3.77

Record

19%

126-532 (658)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$274.86

Value

$282.79

PnL

+$7.93

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$272.72

Value

$277.76

PnL

+$5.04

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$168

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$168

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$118.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.95

Value

$55.35

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

1071-1128 (2199)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.2

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

66%

1739-895 (2634)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.82

Value

$36.43

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

272-234 (506)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

27%

102-276 (378)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.