Raptors vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$26.36

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 72.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$789.77

Total Shares1,090

Combined PnL+$26.62

Over4 traders

Total Value$101.29

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$0.26

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 64.3¢	$899.48	$957.71	+$58.23	49% 303-310 (613)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.3¢	$712.56	$764.56	+$52
└ Over leg	Overavg 30¢	$186.92	$193.15	+$6.23
RN1	Underavg 70¢	$753.04	$779.43	+$26.39	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 68¢	$319.1	$331.84	+$12.75	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68¢	$247.54	$263.92	+$16.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 29¢	$71.56	$67.93	-$3.63
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$62	$61	-$1	50% 3551-3509 (7060)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$30.74	$31.24	+$0.5	33% 620-1253 (1873)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$8.37	$8.51	+$0.14	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 67.6¢	$11.31	$8.23	+$0.18	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 65¢	$2.06	$2.11	+$0.05	54% 1122-947 (2069)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$0.43	$0.55	+$0.11	48% 2366-2611 (4977)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$899.48

Value

$957.71

PnL

+$58.23

Record

49%

303-310 (613)

Both legs:

Under$712.5664.3¢+$52

Over$186.9230¢+$6.23

RN1

Under

Invested

$753.04

Value

$779.43

PnL

+$26.39

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$319.1

Value

$331.84

PnL

+$12.75

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Under$247.5468¢+$16.38

Over$71.5629¢-$3.63

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62

Value

$61

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3551-3509 (7060)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.74

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

620-1253 (1873)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.37

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$0.14

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.31

Value

$8.23

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.