Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 40.5

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 49¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 13

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$156.16

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 48.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares30,320

Combined PnL+$156.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 48¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$45.85	33% 551-1131 (1682)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 48¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$40.73	59% 462-322 (784)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 48¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$36.64	33% 533-1106 (1639)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.32	57% 3457-2627 (6084)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$328.78	$335.77	+$7	52% 754-704 (1458)
OD OddstormCTR	Underavg 48¢	$301.44	$304.58	+$3.14	27% 52-141 (193)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47¢	$99.45	$101.57	+$2.12	46% 438-515 (953)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$35.31	$35.68	+$0.37	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$4,401.71

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$45.85

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$3,909.9

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$40.73

Record

59%

462-322 (784)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$3,517.41

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$36.64

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,950.46

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.32

Record

57%

3457-2627 (6084)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$328.78

Value

$335.77

PnL

+$7

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

OddstormCTR

Under

Invested

$301.44

Value

$304.58

PnL

+$3.14

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$99.45

Value

$101.57

PnL

+$2.12

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.31

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.