Spread: Giants (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Giants (50%) · Giants at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Giants
6
Giants 50%
$1.8K
-$4.84
48.9¢ → 50.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGiants at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Giants. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Giantsavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Commandersavg 50¢ | $339.74 | $332.68 | -$7.06 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
SN SnakeBall | Giantsavg 48¢ | $183.19 | $187.01 | +$3.82 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Commandersavg 51¢ | $51 | $49 | -$2 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Giantsavg 48¢ | $24.99 | $25.51 | +$0.52 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Commandersavg 49.4¢ | $13.84 | $13.72 | -$0.12 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,224.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$339.74
Value
$332.68
PnL
-$7.06
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$183.19
Value
$187.01
PnL
+$3.82
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$51
Value
$49
PnL
-$2
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$25.51
PnL
+$0.52
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$13.84
Value
$13.72
PnL
-$0.12
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.