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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomeRunHazard | MD14 | nigiri99 | Tsamam | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (516–456, n=972) | 81% (22–5, n=27) | 54% (455–392, n=847) | 50% (1–1, n=2) |
| Consensus PnL | $362K | $328K | $324K | $4.9K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #10 | PM monthly #114 | PM monthly #129 | PM monthly #811 |
| Sides with the consensus | 65% (104 of 161 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 52% (82 of 159 open) | 38% (3 of 8 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| not computed yet |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 224 at avg 53¢, ROI +48% | 92% of 24 at avg 71¢, ROI +22% | 71% of 605 at avg 54¢, ROI +6% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 100% of 3) | 4% (won 0% of 1) | 13% (won 40% of 81) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 31% (won 100% of 70) | 13% (won 100% of 3) | 24% (won 62% of 144) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 60% (won 100% of 135) | 21% (won 80% of 5) | 43% (won 74% of 261) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 7% (won 100% of 16) | 63% (won 100% of 15) | 20% (won 98% of 119) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
46 on the same side, 31 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomeRunHazard | MD14 | nigiri99 | Tsamam |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavericks vs. Cavaliers opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Cavaliers $48K | Cavaliers $1.2K | Mavericks $48 | — |
| Avalanche vs. Canadiens opposite sides · consensus Avalanche | Canadiens $14K | — | Avalanche $9.9K | — |
| Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Under $14K | — | Over $2.4K | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $13K | — | Mavericks $32 | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 47.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.7K | — | Over $6.2K | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $4.0K | — | Heat $5.2K | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech: O/U 57.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $5.7K | — | Under $2.9K | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) opposite sides · consensus Mavericks | Cavaliers $8.1K | — | Mavericks $78 | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Arkansas | South Carolina $3.8K | — | Arkansas $4.1K | — |
| Spread: Mavericks (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Cavaliers | Cavaliers $6.7K | — | Mavericks $63 | — |
| San Jose State vs. Air Force: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $4.2K | — | Over $1.9K | — |
| Dolphins vs. Colts: O/U 38.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Over $4.4K | — | Under $1.1K | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech $1.0K | — | Stanford $4.3K | — |
| Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 73.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.6K | — | Over $1.6K | — |
| Stanford vs. Virginia Tech opposite sides · consensus Virginia Tech | Stanford $3.9K | — | Virginia Tech $1.3K | — |
| Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 49.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $867 | — | Under $4.2K | — |
| Utah State vs. San Diego State: O/U 41.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $4.4K | — | Under $361 | — |
| North Texas vs. UTSA: O/U 75.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $3.4K | — | Over $942 | — |
| Spread: South Carolina (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus South Carolina | South Carolina $2.7K | — | Arkansas $1.0K | — |
| Spread: Wyoming (-8.5) opposite sides · consensus UTEP | UTEP $1.9K | — | Wyoming $664 | — |
| Spread: New Mexico (-18.5) opposite sides · consensus New Mexico | New Mexico $1.8K | — | UNLV $695 | — |
| North Dakota State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 39.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | Under $2.2K | — | Over $265 | — |
| South Carolina vs. Arkansas: O/U 51.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | Over $572 | — | Under $1.3K | — |
| Spread: North Dakota State (-7.5) opposite sides · consensus Hawai'i | Hawai'i $1.4K | — | North Dakota State $370 | — |
| Spread: Virginia Tech (-15.5) opposite sides · consensus Stanford | Virginia Tech $531 | — | Stanford $877 | — |
| Spread: New Mexico (-16.5) opposite sides · consensus New Mexico | New Mexico $850 | — | UNLV $227 | — |
| Texas vs. LSU opposite sides · consensus LSU | LSU $199 | — | Texas $653 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Heat | Pistons $199 | — | Heat $363 | — |
| Spread: Air Force (-14.5) opposite sides · consensus Air Force | Air Force $8 | — | San Jose State $552 | — |
| Montana Grizzlies vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks opposite sides · consensus Montana Grizzlies | North Dakota Fighting Hawks $219 | — | Montana Grizzlies $216 | — |
| Rockets vs. Wizards opposite sides · consensus Rockets | Wizards $22 | — | Rockets $78 | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $83K | — | Grizzlies $70K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) same side · consensus Grizzlies | Grizzlies $25K | — | Grizzlies $33K | — |
| Bulls vs. Timberwolves same side · consensus Timberwolves | Bulls $9.1K | — | Bulls $31K | — |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5) same side · consensus Nets | Nets $9.1K | — | Nets $10K | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) same side · consensus Heat | Heat $6.0K | — | Heat $11K | — |
| Texas vs. LSU: O/U 47.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $13K | — | Over $1.7K | — |
| Utah vs. Arizona same side · consensus Utah | Utah $231 | — | Utah $14K | — |
| Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $12K | — | Over $1.5K | — |
| Spread: Lions (-2.5) same side · consensus Lions | Patriots $6.1K | — | Patriots $6.1K | — |
| Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 227.5 same side · consensus Over | Over $4.7K | — | Over $7.1K | — |
| Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $8.4K | — | Under $1.7K | — |
| Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: O/U 73.5 same side · consensus Under | Over $9.2K | — | Over $521 | — |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5) same side · consensus Bulls | Bulls $8.8K | — | Bulls $37 | — |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) same side · consensus Pistons | Heat $7.4K | — | Heat $915 | — |
| Flames vs. Kings same side · consensus Kings | Flames $2.2K | — | Flames $6.1K | — |
| Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $4.8K | — | Under $3.4K | — |
| Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $403 | — | Under $7.5K | — |
| Spread: Louisville (-3.5) same side · consensus North Carolina | North Carolina $2.1K | — | North Carolina $5.7K | — |
| Colorado State vs. Washington State: O/U 63.5 same side · consensus Under | Under $3.1K | — | Under $4.7K | — |