Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 235.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 25%
$11.0K
$28.03
51.9¢ → 53.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $4.7K | $4.6K | -$147.84 | 37% 55-95 (150) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51.8¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$103.95 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$76.85 | 52% 602-565 (1167) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48.9¢ | $138.52 | $133.18 | -$5.33 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $80.5 | $81.38 | +$0.88 | 59% 3827-2633 (6460) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 47.2¢ | $51.12 | $50.38 | -$0.74 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $44.01 | $44.49 | +$0.48 | 39% 419-652 (1071) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48.5¢ | $4.85 | $4.65 | -$0.2 | 41% 708-1019 (1727) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$4,730.87
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$147.84
Record
37%
55-95 (150)
Invested
$3,209.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$103.95
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
nigiri99Invested
$2,663.96
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$76.85
Record
52%
602-565 (1167)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$138.52
Value
$133.18
PnL
-$5.33
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
Invested
$80.5
Value
$81.38
PnL
+$0.88
Record
59%
3827-2633 (6460)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$51.12
Value
$50.38
PnL
-$0.74
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$44.01
Value
$44.49
PnL
+$0.48
Record
39%
419-652 (1071)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.2
Record
41%
708-1019 (1727)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.