Spread: Lions (-2.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (46%) · Lions at 53¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 15

Lions53¢Patriots47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 46%

Total Value

$35.8K

Combined PnL

-$39.96

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions53%

Patriots48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots7 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares27,415

Combined PnL+$138.14

Lions6 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares43,597

Combined PnL-$178.09

Patriots — 54%Lions — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPatriots 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 50% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$11.1K	$11.2K	+$117.64	48% 579-616 (1195)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Lionsavg 53¢	$10.6K	$10.4K	-$200	54% 529-455 (984)
MD mde4life1986	Lionsavg 52¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$84.39	3% 2-66 (68)
DA darkumbreon88	Lionsavg 53¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$32.5	61% 969-610 (1579)
rafaleaoo	Lionsavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$30	3% 20-637 (657)
nigiri99CTR	Patriotsavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.5	52% 367-339 (706)
OD OddstormCTR	Patriotsavg 48¢	$303.84	$300.68	-$3.16	27% 53-144 (197)
VeryLucky888CTR	Patriotsavg 46.6¢	$936.21	$271.9	+$9.04	52% 813-742 (1555)
SN SnakeBall	Lionsavg 52¢	$244.3	$244.38	+$0.08	46% 485-564 (1049)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 47¢	$47.36	$48.37	+$1.01	59% 3556-2429 (5985)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 45.2¢	$21.59	$22.43	+$0.84	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 46¢	$12.78	$13.06	+$0.28	28% 171-441 (612)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 53¢	$3.18	$3.12	-$0.06	49% 1088-1142 (2230)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Patriots

Invested

$11,057.99

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$117.64

Record

48%

579-616 (1195)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Lions

Invested

$10,600

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$200

Record

54%

529-455 (984)

mde4life1986

Lions

Invested

$8,776.72

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$84.39

Record

2-66 (68)

darkumbreon88

Lions

Invested

$1,722.7

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

61%

969-610 (1579)

rafaleaoo

Lions

Invested

$1,590

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

20-637 (657)

nigiri99CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,175

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

52%

367-339 (706)

OddstormCTR

Patriots

Invested

$303.84

Value

$300.68

PnL

-$3.16

Record

27%

53-144 (197)

VeryLucky888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$936.21

Value

$271.9

PnL

+$9.04

Record

52%

813-742 (1555)

SnakeBall

Lions

Invested

$244.3

Value

$244.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

NM-PCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$47.36

Value

$48.37

PnL

+$1.01

Record

59%

3556-2429 (5985)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$21.59

Value

$22.43

PnL

+$0.84

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

GC-PCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$12.78

Value

$13.06

PnL

+$0.28

Record

28%

171-441 (612)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.12

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

1088-1142 (2230)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPatriots 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedPatriots 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Patriots 50% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.