Baylor vs. BYU: O/U 51.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (18%) · Under at 56¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 18%

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$11.24

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares13,942

Combined PnL+$6.94

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares13,109

Combined PnL+$4.3

Under — 18%Over — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 56.5¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	-$6.59	51% 579-546 (1125)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$25	33% 69-139 (208)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Overavg 43¢	$791.12	$800.32	+$9.2	59% 506-349 (855)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 54.6¢	$385.73	$399.26	+$13.53	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 44¢	$942.86	$362.62	+$1.76	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 43¢	$258	$261	+$3	45% 35-43 (78)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$264.19	$252.45	-$11.74	38% 1068-1766 (2834)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 44¢	$255.2	$252.3	-$2.9	39% 402-638 (1040)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 44¢	$154	$152.25	-$1.75	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$144.77	$141.5	-$3.27	47% 319-356 (675)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$7,484.37

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$6.59

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

Bagwell306CTR

Over

Invested

$2,150

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25

Record

33%

69-139 (208)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Over

Invested

$791.12

Value

$800.32

PnL

+$9.2

Record

59%

506-349 (855)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$385.73

Value

$399.26

PnL

+$13.53

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$942.86

Value

$362.62

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$258

Value

$261

PnL

+$3

Record

45%

35-43 (78)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$264.19

Value

$252.45

PnL

-$11.74

Record

38%

1068-1766 (2834)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$255.2

Value

$252.3

PnL

-$2.9

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$154

Value

$152.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Over

Invested

$144.77

Value

$141.5

PnL

-$3.27

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.