Pistons vs. Heat: O/U 227.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$6.78

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 51.5¢

-4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$608.93

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL+$10.15

Under7 traders

Total Value$580.85

Total Shares1,267

Combined PnL-$3.37

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.6¢	$566.88	$575.97	+$9.09	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 46¢	$306.29	$302.96	-$3.33	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 46¢	$130.37	$133.2	+$2.83	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$56.4	$54.6	-$1.8	50% 131-131 (262)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$50.83	$50.28	-$0.55	43% 198-262 (460)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$27.75	$27.45	-$0.3	44% 216-270 (486)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$16.19	$13.88	+$0.44	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 53¢	$13.25	$13.63	+$0.38	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.54	$8.36	-$0.18	56% 541-433 (974)
GC GC-P<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.45	+$0.25	39% 419-652 (1071)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.04	$4	-$0.04	37% 1085-1829 (2914)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$566.88

Value

$575.97

PnL

+$9.09

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$306.29

Value

$302.96

PnL

-$3.33

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$130.37

Value

$133.2

PnL

+$2.83

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.4

Value

$54.6

PnL

-$1.8

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.83

Value

$50.28

PnL

-$0.55

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

biying88888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.75

Value

$27.45

PnL

-$0.3

Record

44%

216-270 (486)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$16.19

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$13.25

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.54

Value

$8.36

PnL

-$0.18

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

GC-P<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.