Flames vs. Kings

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (25%) · Kings at 63¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 15

Flames38¢Kings62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 25%

Total Value

$56.4K

Combined PnL

-$55.61

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 62.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKings at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Flames38%

Kings63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings4 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares58,007

Combined PnL-$234.63

Flames12 traders

Total Value$20.1K

Total Shares53,542

Combined PnL+$179.02

Kings — 25%Flames — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEI	Kingsavg 63¢	$33.9K	$33.7K	-$269.36	55% 636-530 (1166)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$12.5K	$12.7K	+$169.26	49% 635-674 (1309)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$34.06	46% 81-97 (178)
RO roldyCTR	Flamesavg 39¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$60	37% 11-19 (30)
RO royalestake	Kingsavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$20.09	8% 17-192 (209)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$838.78	$850.11	+$11.33	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
TA taylorsversion	Kingsavg 62¢	$820.57	$827.19	+$6.62	52% 106-98 (204)
HI hi774cCTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$760.27	$770.54	+$10.27	22% 179-618 (797)
VeryLucky888CTR	Flamesavg 37¢	$740	$750	+$10	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
fyrsken	Kingsavg 61¢	$489.55	$497.57	+$8.03	52% 55-51 (106)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$94.72	$96	+$1.28	48% 286-304 (590)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$74	$75	+$1	54% 492-416 (908)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$57.02	$22	+$1.52	50% 1585-1605 (3190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$21.03	$21.35	+$0.32	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Flamesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.05	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Flamesavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.88	+$0.02	41% 688-1006 (1694)

SineNooneEI

Kings

Invested

$33,939.66

Value

$33.7K

PnL

-$269.36

Record

55%

636-530 (1166)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Flames

Invested

$12,525

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$169.26

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,520.81

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$34.06

Record

46%

81-97 (178)

roldyCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,340

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$60

Record

37%

11-19 (30)

royalestake

Kings

Invested

$1,225.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$20.09

Record

17-192 (209)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Flames

Invested

$838.78

Value

$850.11

PnL

+$11.33

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

taylorsversion

Kings

Invested

$820.57

Value

$827.19

PnL

+$6.62

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

hi774cCTR

Flames

Invested

$760.27

Value

$770.54

PnL

+$10.27

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

VeryLucky888CTR

Flames

Invested

$740

Value

$750

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

fyrsken

Kings

Invested

$489.55

Value

$497.57

PnL

+$8.03

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$94.72

Value

$96

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$74

Value

$75

PnL

+$1

Record

54%

492-416 (908)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$57.02

Value

$22

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

1585-1605 (3190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$21.03

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$0.32

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

688-1006 (1694)

Research grade

NeutralKings at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKings 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Kings 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.