Spread: Louisville (-3.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold North Carolina (73%) · North Carolina at 51¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 15

Louisville50¢North Carolina50¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Carolina

Consensus Traders

North Carolina 73%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$19.96

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Carolina at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Louisville50%

North Carolina51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Carolina8 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares18,565

Combined PnL-$63.76

Louisville3 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares17,376

Combined PnL+$83.72

North Carolina — 73%Louisville — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on North Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Carolina 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Carolina 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$8.5K	$8.4K	-$83.65	51% 579-546 (1125)
JU justwinsCTR	Louisvilleavg 49¢	$8.3K	$8.4K	+$85.17	50% 118-119 (237)
VeryLucky888	North Carolinaavg 49.3¢	$609.36	$490.64	+$17.06	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
NM NM-P	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$175	$176.75	+$1.75	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
GC GC-P	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$174.02	$175.76	+$1.74	39% 402-638 (1040)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR	Louisvilleavg 50¢	$165.69	$164.03	-$1.66	4% 14-330 (344)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$49.04	$48.08	-$0.96	4% 17-391 (408)
PA Pan9X<$100	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$22.5	$22.73	+$0.23	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Louisvilleavg 49¢	$9.88	$10.08	+$0.2	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
38 38791873984189<$100	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$7.63	$7.71	+$0.08	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	47% 319-356 (675)

nigiri99

North Carolina

Invested

$8,531.79

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$83.65

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

justwinsCTR

Louisville

Invested

$8,347

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$85.17

Record

50%

118-119 (237)

VeryLucky888

North Carolina

Invested

$609.36

Value

$490.64

PnL

+$17.06

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

NM-P

North Carolina

Invested

$175

Value

$176.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

GC-P

North Carolina

Invested

$174.02

Value

$175.76

PnL

+$1.74

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR

Louisville

Invested

$165.69

Value

$164.03

PnL

-$1.66

Record

14-330 (344)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$49.04

Value

$48.08

PnL

-$0.96

Record

17-391 (408)

Pan9X<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Louisville

Invested

$9.88

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

38791873984189<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

North Carolina

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Carolina at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on North Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Carolina 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Carolina 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.