Spread: Timberwolves (-16.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (50%) · Bulls at 89¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves12¢Bulls88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 88.5¢

+62% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves12%

Bulls89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls7 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares15,507

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,596

Combined PnL-$350.39

Bulls — 50%Timberwolves — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (13 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 51.9¢	$7.2K	$8.8K	+$1.7K	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Timberwolvesavg 45.4¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$56.8	70% 1725-752 (2477)
GL glennyorkshire	Bullsavg 52.9¢	$1.9K	$3.2K	+$1.3K	46% 189-223 (412)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 90¢	$901.02	$741.02	-$160	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 27¢	$599.06	$628.97	+$29.91	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 27¢	$469.36	$452.07	-$17.29
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 54.3¢	$129.7	$176.91	+$47.21
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47.5¢	$119.37	$132.63	+$13.26	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 47.5¢	$79.59	$77.08	-$2.5
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 53¢	$39.78	$55.54	+$15.76
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$282.5	$99.69	-$44.69	51% 970-935 (1905)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$120	$65	-$55
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 52¢	$24.38	$34.69	+$10.31
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$400	$89.8	-$310.2	28% 408-1071 (1479)
RJ RJW1CTR	Timberwolvesavg 48¢	$117	$63.38	-$53.63	46% 118-141 (259)
nigiri99	Bullsavg 53¢	$411.35	$36.89	+$16.69	51% 639-619 (1258)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Bullsavg 54.5¢	$41.09	$35.98	+$12.3	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
VeryLucky888	Bullsavg 51.1¢	$291.31	$32.58	+$4.01	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 46.4¢	$62.89	$25.8	-$15.55	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
38 38791873984189CTR	Timberwolvesavg 47.5¢	$195.72	$20.6	-$9.98	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$28.57	$15.16	-$13.41	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
MI micky456<$100	Bullsavg 54¢	$6.54	$10.78	+$4.24	47% 590-656 (1246)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 50¢	$14.05	$4.63	-$4.42	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$7,173.4

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

SunlineTickerCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$4,685.8

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$56.8

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

glennyorkshire

Bulls

Invested

$1,922.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

189-223 (412)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$901.02

Value

$741.02

PnL

-$160

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$599.06

Value

$628.97

PnL

+$29.91

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$469.3627¢-$17.29

Bulls$129.754.3¢+$47.21

SnakeBallARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$119.37

Value

$132.63

PnL

+$13.26

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$79.5947.5¢-$2.5

Bulls$39.7853¢+$15.76

NotJumpARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$282.5

Value

$99.69

PnL

-$44.69

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$12048¢-$55

Bulls$24.3852¢+$10.31

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$400

Value

$89.8

PnL

-$310.2

Record

28%

408-1071 (1479)

RJW1CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$117

Value

$63.38

PnL

-$53.63

Record

46%

118-141 (259)

nigiri99

Bulls

Invested

$411.35

Value

$36.89

PnL

+$16.69

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Bulls

Invested

$41.09

Value

$35.98

PnL

+$12.3

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

VeryLucky888

Bulls

Invested

$291.31

Value

$32.58

PnL

+$4.01

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$62.89

Value

$25.8

PnL

-$15.55

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

38791873984189CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$195.72

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$9.98

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

suntoriCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$28.57

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$13.41

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

micky456<$100

Bulls

Invested

$6.54

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$4.24

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$14.05

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$4.42

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bulls) and the top 1000 (13 on Timberwolves) disagree here.

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Timberwolves 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.